On April as everybody was bullish and talking a 150$ Oil technical analysis was signaling a sell as I mentioned here http://www.trad3rs.com/2014/04/12/wti-oil-update-cl/.
Now everybody is bearish Oil and every analyst from China to Argentina are explaining why Oil price is Ok at $60 levels.(Oil is NOT ok at $60), And how the industry will consolidate and many companies disappear. Well, we can have 2 or 3 dollars more to the south on Oil but we will get to a floor soon. It could be a slow bottom or a V bottom, that we will never know before, but this price levels are the best chance to buy Oil for the last 4 years and will be the best for the following 10-15 years.
Of course technical analysis and me could be both wrong but that is what trading is about, probabilities. You don´t buy when prices are expensive , you buy when is cheap, and for me now Oil is cheap.
Have a nice week.
The charts from last week were right about new highs before another correction.
I have made some changes to the primary count on both US and Euro Stocks. If you think it´s all clear for a 10% rally into years end ,well… think again, or look at the chart below.
After the Tsunami of QEs from Japan is clear that world central banks are far from letting markets work their way, so this are the rules, you can play or not.
From my technical point of view, the most important thing this week in US stocks was that a floor was set at the previous correction low. 1800s for Sp500 and 3700s for Nasdaq100.
They are very important now as they must hold for this counts to be valid. Any action below this lows turns to a most bearish scenario for the next 2 or 3 years.
So, are buying US stocks with the new highs? No way. Not today , not tomorrow, not this week or the other.
We should have a strong pullback close to the 1900s and 3900s zones, that would be a buy opportunity into next year before another bigger correction (+- 20%) into the end of 2015.
So, i think we are far from buy and hold if you look at 1 ,2 or 3 years horizon, its trading time again guys but only for swing opportunities, scalp/intraday trading is done for most of us humans, that´s machines and brokers business now, but that its for another post!
Have a nice weekend