Stocks rebound for now .Watch your strategy. Caution ahead.


OK, so we got the rebound expected this week. What now?

We should put our attention on the actual levels of SPX and NDX for some clues. Rebound looks strong on daily charts, but if you get into further details the structure of rebound is weak, We know by now that there is no problem with that for the FED to keep pumping stocks, but this time it just ” feels” different.


We will have to wait for the price action to confirm. Also , going into weekly and monthly charts we can not help to notice that they seem due for a bigger correction than the last couple weeks correction. I reviewed all long time wave count and found many harmonics patterns between all stock indexes that point to a larger correction, not only on size but in time.


All in all, main trend still bullish and we have many supports below before we can put it to test, that is another reason why we should expect more downside next weeks. Much work to do below.

Last but no least. we haven’t seen any real panic yet on the selling action, so I am not buying this rebound for now.

As I said last week, 2014 looks to be a very complex year for short time traders. Stock indexes seem to be in wave IIs and Wave IVs on weekly charts, that points to whipsaws , overlapping, multiple wave counts, and finally in lots of $$$ for brokers, algos and the usual suspects with privileged information.


Taking all of this information into account, I will be putting my focus on weekly trading the Stock indexes and not intraday trading them for the following months. I may be wrong and uptrend could resume forever, in that case I would not have any problem getting on into a important breakout (like the failed European indexes breakout couple weeks ago).

This would lead to fewer intraday Twitter updates on levels, short term charts and comments.

I suggest you review your strategy at this stage and plan accordingly . It makes no sense. at least  to me,  to get caught in this choppy action during the day. What prevails is the main trend and that would be our friend forever. Play safe and have a nice week everyone!


Charts below:


ESP35 - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1703 PM (1 week) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1703 PM (1 week) ITA40 - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1703 PM (1 week) NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1704 PM (1 week) SPX500 - Bullish - Apr-18 1704 PM (1 week) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1703 PM (1 week)


World Stock Indexes still bullish $ES_F $SPX $NDX $DJX $DAX

Since last month , NASDAQ has been leading the sales , if you get into further details Tech stocks got smashed for the last months, even before the Nasdaq started to follow.

NAS100 - Intermarket2 - Apr-13 0759 AM (4 hour)


Some Tech stocks are showing signs of at least a 8- 10% bounce the next days-

FB - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1451 PM (1 day)


This, along that there is no panic selling (at least for now) in other risk assets or strong dollar buying, would put us in a correction only selling mode that could last this month and maybe 3 or 4 % more before buying resumes to higher levels.

Said this, corrections are complex waves , with lots of overlapping and violent movements to both sides, so its a good idea to trade for the long term with wide stops or just sit on your hands(cash) and wait for the dust to settle.

Bullish trend seems to resume and European stocks look much better for the long term than US stocks. It seems  strange to imagine much higher levels from this already  high prices since 2009, but , maybe there is something cooking on some central bank kitchen for the next weeks. Time will tell.


1730 level very important for SP500 futures (ES). Below this levels the scenario could change to a more bearish outlook.

This is equivalent for :


3417 and later 3300 in Nasdaq futures (NQ)

8700-8500 for the DAX

5900 FTSE UK



ESP35 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1327 PM (1 month) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1249 PM (1 month) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1300 PM (1 week) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1506 PM (1 day) JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Apr-13 0737 AM (1 week)  NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-13 0759 AM (1 day) SPX500 - Bullish - Apr-12 1404 PM (1 day) SPX500 - Bullish - Apr-12 1455 PM (1 day) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1312 PM (1 week) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1315 PM (1 day)


$EURUSD $AUDUSD on their way to higher levels , waiting for resistance to sell

Still with some room to the upside before resistance. AUDUSD stronger than EURUSD moving EURAUD into a wave 2 correction for now.

ECB doing some lip service to the exchange rate these last days, but we think they would have to see EURUSD above 1.4000 before they really do some stronger verbal intervention.

All in all EURUSD below 1.3600 would trigger the downside so while it stays above that level we could see it at 1.4000/4400.

AUDUSD - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1205 PM (1 week) EURUSD - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1026 AM (1 month) EURAUD - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1242 PM (1 day)


$EURJPY $USDJPY $AUDJPY Yen Crosses. Uptrend but tired

Yen crosses continue the bullish trend. They are sitting at a  important support right now and poised to breakdown if Risk off continues.

They Nikkei Index is sitting at a similar support at 13800 zone with the last support 13700 before some sell stops are triggered.

JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1328 PM (1 day) JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Apr-13 0738 AM (1 week)

We have two counts for the EURJPY .


EURJPY - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1136 AM (1 month) EURJPY - bullish - Apr-12 1156 AM (1 week)



USDJPY looks like still has one push to the upside if able to hold current support around 101.00.

USDJPY - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1152 AM (1 month)



On the other side AUDJPY looks on its last stages of a zigzag correction to the 98.00 area for a sell signal.

AUDJPY - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1206 PM (1 day)



And if you think this pairs have gone as long way, just take a look at the correlation with the SP500 for the last time. Do you think they have room to the upside?


EURJPY - Alternate 1 - Apr-12 1157 AM (1 week)


As you could notice, the USDJPY pair still looks much bullish that the EURJPY pair, and AUDJPY, that would support a weak EURUSD and AUD USD for the next months once the reach their resistance levels. Next post.



$EURUSD : Bullish Consolidation

EURUSD - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1026 AM (1 month)


A really awful action but pointing to 1.4400 once and if 1.3970 cleared. At 1.4400 we could expect a reversal . Needs to see below 13600 to invalidate. Not good risk reward. Avoid.



Gold : 4th wave consolidation

We have two options triangle or ZigZag to 1434 resistance. In any case we can not go over 1522.75, in that case the scenario is invalid. Avoid in the short term until direction established.

XAUUSD - Primary Analysis - Apr-12 1054 AM (1 week)


WTI Oil Update $CL

All time frames point to a sell off from current levels.


USOil - Bullish - Apr-12 1000 AM (1 month) USOil - Bullish - Apr-12 1001 AM (1 week) USOil - Bullish - Apr-12 1002 AM (1 day)


Long term charts update: breaking up?

Until last post, principal stock indexes around the world had nice and clear tops working their way. From last week there seems to be a breaking up developing specially from European indexes.

This week should leave us a clear picture but, if that is the case , we could still have plenty of room above .  American indexes $NQ $ES are pretty extended but not the Europeans that look better for a run up.

This leave us with this weekly close as a very important one. If the American indexes recover from the NFP selloff this week, we could see a rebound in risk coming days.  We could be taking a special look at technology stocks that lead the decline, any sign of rebound in technology could be the catalyst for a Risk On rally and selling the dollar again.

3440 for NDX and 1740 for SPX are the final support for this correction, anything below we could see a long lasting correction.



ESP35 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0752 AM (12 hour)  ITA40 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0754 AM (1 day) JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0753 AM (1 week) NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0803 AM (1 week) SPX500 - Bullish - Apr-07 0757 AM (1 day) SUI30 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0754 AM (12 hour) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0731 AM (1 day) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Apr-07 0741 AM (1 day)


Long Term Charts Update March 16 2014

ESP35 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1825 PM (1 week) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1815 PM (1 week) GER30 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1820 PM (1 day) ITA40 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1823 PM (1 week) JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1835 PM (1 month) JPN225 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1839 PM (1 day) NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1919 PM (1 month) NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1926 PM (1 week) NAS100 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1932 PM (1 day) SPX500 - Bullish - Mar-16 1941 PM (1 month) SPX500 - Bullish - Mar-16 1944 PM (1 day) SPX500 - Bullish - Mar-16 1951 PM (1 week) SPX500 - Bullish - Mar-16 1954 PM (1 day) SPX500 - Bullish - Mar-16 1957 PM (1 hour) SUI30 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1800 PM (1 day) SUI30 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1802 PM (1 day) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1841 PM (1 month) UK100 - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1851 PM (1 day) UKOil - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1902 PM (1 month) USOil - Primary Analysis - Mar-16 1907 PM (1 month)